This is my first weather outlook for Christmas 2016. Please note we are around 1000 hours away and this cannot be called a forecast at that range. I can only use the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model at this range the other models GFS, ECMWF, JMA AND GEM have not come into play yet. So what I am about to say has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Things can change especially with any warming with the Polar vortex, this would have a major change in any forecasting.
There will be regular updates and I ask you to read these and you will then see the close we get to Christmas the more information I will add into the updates and I will have more confidence in the forecasts.
1st Update issued 14th November.
It looks like westerly’s will be driving our weather. This means some wet weather with temperatures around 5 centigrade. Showers for Christmas Eve and Christmas day with a series of storms moving across the UK from Boxing day onwards.
Any snow risk looks confined to Scotland at this time.