This is my 9th Christmas update.
Christmas is still bringing uncertainties in forecasting the Christmas period.
I have looked at 4 models this morning and I have added the images together from the GFS, ECM, GEM and CFS. I am trying to look for similarities between the 4 models. There are so many troughs and ridges around the UK and its difficult to see which one will be closer to what will happen. The only common idea is the large ridge over Scandinavia.
The CFS shows a milder air flow for Christmas Day I don’t favour this. The ECM and GEM show a small ridge to the South West of the UK this would bring slightly high pressure ridge into the UK around 115 hpa where the GFS shows the pressure around 110 hpa.
So the only thing I can say at this time is Christmas Eve is looking unsettled and mild. Christmas day at this time is looking wet at times especially during the afternoon and evening.
Best chance of snow will be for the Lakes and Western Central Scotland.
Boxing day is looks stormy with gale force winds into Northern UK.
So we will see what Mondays update will bring to see if we can come up with a better forecast.