An update on the Polar Vortex

An update on the Polar Vortex


One follower asked me for an update on the Polar Vortex.

Way back early November before our winter begin I wrote about a weak polar vortex and that it looked like it was on the verge of warming and splitting

Since then the Polar Vortex re grouped grew larger in area size and became a lot colder.

I do looked at the stratosphere models daily to see if there is any change or any likely of a SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming that may take place.

At this time the very top of the stratosphere is warming just a little and the models are showing the top layer may split. But I don’t see any warming transferring down through the layer’s at this time. But the models think the lower level of the Stratosphere may reduce in area size over the next few weeks.

We are still early in the winter but if there was going to be any warming or signs of a split taking place I would want it to have happened or at least have started well before the end of January.

The two images I have pasted together the left image 1 hpa Very top of Stratosphere. Right image 10 hpa a little lower down both of todays date. The 10hpa shows a lot of warming on the one side maybe this could put some pressure on -80 c but that’s very cold and would take a lot of warming.

What I am looking for is a sudden warming and split in the Vortex. If that happened it could send us into a real, cold extended winter 21 days later. But at this time its not looking likely. But winter 2016/17 is proving to be interesting and unpredictable  and I am surly not writing it off yet.