Still so much uncertainty in the different models. I have checked the latest temperature of the Vortex and I can see a small drop in temperature.
Looking at the different models they show different opinions. Both are going for cold but one more than the other. This tells me that they are very uncertain in the outcome and they are not handling the warming of the Vortex well.
At the moment I still see colder temperatures during the 2nd week of the month with a risk of some snow at some point.
I will continue to watch this and keep you well updated. I am sorry that there are so many changes but that’s what we will have to live with for the next 5-7 days until the models settle down.
I have pasted two images together for the same date and time. One from the ECMWF and the other from GFS so you can see their different opinion’s.