First look at Winter 2018/19

First look at Winter 2018/19

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I must start by saying it is far to early to give any type of forecast so please don’t expect one at this very early stage of Autumn because there is little to go on at the moment.

The CFS model.

December see’s low pressure in the Atlantic, this will bring a fairly mild month with rainfall slightly above average.

January. High pressure over Scandinavia and central Europe. This could bring winds coming from a South-easterly direction, bringing rainfall below average and temperatures around average.

February.

Low pressure looks like it will be mainly in control bringing westerlies with temperatures above average and its looking quite a settled month.

March.

Low pressure again looks like bringing slightly above average temperatures with above average rainfall.

That’s what the long range for from the CFS thinks at this time and I must stress this is just one idea.

Stratosphere. 

Last winter followers will know I spent a lot of time watching the polar vortex and you remember what I said could happen and what did happen when the sudden warming took place. Well it’s far to early to say what will happen this winter because the vortex is only just started to become cold again after the summer. But what I can say it is fairly weak at this time of the season but its far to early to say will it warm and split this coming winter.

Sea Surface Temperatures 

The ENSO region of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean has shown some warming over the past couple of weeks but not a great deal and the criteria does not look like it will reach El Nino. So at this time there are no pointers from SST for this coming winter.

Other Models.

It will be around 2nd week of October before the JMA long range is released so I have nothing new to add there from what I wrote 3 weeks ago.

Beijing Climate Centre.

Shows a fairly mild winter with slightly above average precipitation.

So at this time I cannot say what will happen and you may be disappoint that there is no conclusion. I will update this coming winter early next month and maybe I will have more to say.