The GEFS is going for a cold period starting from around the 7th of this month onward’s.
It looks like it will be remaining mild but quite wet for the first week of December. The GEFS then thinks the temperature will fall away cold maybe with some wintry weather around the middle of the month.
The GEFS model gives some indication what the members believe will happen. The top part of the graph is the temperature at 1,500 metres, 850hpa and the bottom of the graph is precipitation.
The thick black line is the average temperature for this period. So you can see the temperature will remain above average with a brief dip around the 4th of the month when the temperature recovers for several day. But you can see there is rain at some point everyday.
The temperature then falls sharply around the 7th and continues to fall over the next week. The temperature that I am looking at is the -5 c line this gives some indication for the possibility of some wintry precipitation. So this graph gives an indication that we could see some wintry weather from around the 11th onward’s.
So this is a period I am watching carefully to see if it does happen and what this would mean for our area. Remember it may not even happen but it is will worth watching out and reading my updates.