Today the GFS models has just started to come into range for Christmas Eve. These are real long range models from the GFS, we call these the outers. What they are showing at this time is several complex low pressure systems in the Atlantic. I am sure things will change massively before we get to Christmas. Because there area several low pressures systems in the Atlantic there must be many errors in this model run. There are 4 runs a day so each one will show some changes. With the the main GFS models now starting to come into play it will be interesting time for the run up to Christmas Day. The closer we get to Christmas the more accurate the forecast will become.
So I am not looking to much into the model at this time but I am just saying stormy, changeable Christmas would be a understatement. I will be looking at the JMA later and it will be interesting to see if they think a stormy Christmas period too.