I was looking what the outlook will be using the GEFS air pressure graph model. Confidence is high for some improvement in our weather early next week with the air pressure building. Then the GEFS model falls apart. Half the members go for high pressure and the other half of the members go for low pressure. This tells me they dont have a clue what will be happening beyond five days.

If you look at the graph you can see the members lines are close together to start off with meaning there is close agreement in the outlook. Then around the 23rd they start drifting apart. I have never seen such differences of opinion at the end of a model run. Could be high pressure could be low pressure. This will not be sorted out for several days and I will see many different ideas with each model run.

I will be looking at other model GFS, HIRLAM, ECMWF, ICON and the ARPEPG and JMA for some help.