This is the outlook for the months of November, December and January from the JMA, the Japanese Met Agency. This is not a forecast but a general outlook for each of the months.
Remember this is just one model and long range forecasting is still very much experimental.
We will be looking at other ideas over the coming weeks , Polar Vortex, negative Arctic oscillations and other models. Then we will see if we can start to come up with a picture for winter 2016/17.
I have added the 3 JMA images together for each month, rotated them and added a redline showing the UK. Again Orange colours are high pressures and Blues low pressures.
High pressure across the pole and to the South of the UK. Low pressure is nearby the UK in the Atlantic. Overall I can see a South Westerly airflow bringing mild temperatures with some rainfall. But High pressure is near the UK so we could see some brief periods of colder temperatures.
High pressure across the Pole, central Europe with centre of the High pressure over Western Russia. I can see this setup bringing cold temperatures with winds coming from an Easterly direction. There would be some snow showers along the East coast with the odd ones blown inland.
High pressure blocking across the Atlantic and the North Pole, with low pressure trough over the UK. This setup would bring Northerly winds bringing a very cold January with some wintery conditions.