The polar Vortex has been very cold all winter with some near record cold temperatures. This brought us a very strong westerly airflow bringing us a mild, wet winter so far.
It now looks like a change is starting to take place with the temperatures in the polar vortex. Its now started to warm fairly rapidly, will this warming continue and will cause a displacement or a split at the top of the Vortex around 70 miles above the earth. With the polar Vortex being extremely cold this winter and well organised and strong it will have its work cut out to achieve a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW to cause a split or displacement.
So I will be watching the polar vortex carefully now to see if the warming continues and then the warm starts to move down through the Vortex towards the Troposphere. I be then looking for a wind reversal so the winds would travel eastwards around the Pole instead of a westerly.
Not every SSW does result in a harsh wintry period but it does increase the risk. If the SSW happens and splits the Vortex or a major displacement does take place its looks to be around the end of the first week of February. We then have to look around 10-21 days for the possibility of some harsh wintry weather to Europe.
The winter clock is ticking and each day the sunlight time increases and the sun gets a little higher in the sky. But there is still a chance we could see a winter in February delaying the onset of Spring in March. This is one to watch over the coming days to see if this continues. This winter may still may have something to offer to cold, snow lovers.