It seems like I have been talking about wintry weather towards the end of this month for a longtime and I have. I said snow lovers would need to be patient. With the Polar Vortex sudden warming and then splitting the Vortex and a wind reversal in the upper Stratosphere and then waiting for the effects to move down into the Troposphere as taken over a month and it still may not happen after all that.
The models still have some disagreement especially after 5 day’s. But there is more confidence in Tuesday turning out to be a wintry day with a risk of disruptive snow. So lets look at what I see this evening.
Monday 21st looks to be a cloudy day with top temperature around 5 centigrade. During late afternoon and evening rain will start to move into the area. It looks like from around midnight a cold front will move into the area turning the rain to heavy snow only starting to clear the area around dawn Tuesday morning. This will leave a cold day on Tuesday with some snow showers. Temperatures overnight fall to around -1 c. Wednesday looks it will be a sunny, cold day 4 c and again temperature falling just below freezing overnight. Thursday a dry day with sunny spells, 5 c, overnight around -1 c. Friday a dry day with some bright spells, 5 c. The models want to bring a change next weekend to our weather with some westerlies getting in slight increasing in the temperature. Then the models then to flip between easterlies and westerlies to bring some brief wintry periods.
So confidence is still low especially after the middle of the week. I do hope Sunday evening I may be able to publish the next 5 days forecast with some confidence. Yesterday evening there was some indications of the return of the Beast from the East. Today the models have moved away from that Idea, but I would not be surprised to see that idea return again.