I am watching the Polar Vortex and it looks like a SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming could take place. The models believe this will happen. If it does it could send us into a long winter period towards the end February lasting into March.
I must stress there are a lot of maybe’s and possibilities that could happen before we get there, but this is a significant change in what is taking place.
The last time this happened was January 2013 and history tells us we ended up with a lot of snow late winter with a big snow event the middle of March.
The polar vortex is a large area of very cold air through the troposphere reaching the very top at the stratosphere. The vortex is stubborn and difficult to break down so it may not happen but the models believe it will. I will be watching the wave activity to see if it can warm up.
At the moment the temperature is -35 c above Scandinavia, the models think that come 31st January it will be +20 c. That is a massive warming and a big ask.
It will be interesting times to see if it does happen or it’s just becomes another teaser that never delivered this winter of 2016/17.