The big freeze in North America is not helping our cause for a long spell of wintry weather. Yes we know that the last few days for Southern parts of the UK have suffered heavy snow and we have had a couple of fairly cold days with temperatures well below freezing overnight.

The Sudden Stratospheric Warming that did take place and Split the Polar Vortex around the start of this year did not fall favourably for the UK at the moment for hard, prolonged period of wintry conditions. Not every Polar Vortex split does mean a harsh winter for the UK 2 out of 3 times it does but that 1 time it does not. But saying this we still have this month and March to get through yet.

So we know that parts of North America are suffering record low temperatures with rivers and waterfalls freezing. This can be seen with a deep trough over North America allowing very cold Arctic air to drain off the pole. What this is doing is effecting the path of the Jet stream. The JS rises northward leaving America and travels across the Atlantic allowing some ridges of high pressure to temporary build before they collapse away. This pattern is bringing mainly westerlies with the odd North westerlies to travel over the UK. This is not allowing any cold easterlies to get in to the UK like February and March 2018 when the Beast from the East arrived.

So I feel we must watch for a change to take place over North America before we can have a chance of any long period of wintry weather. In fact we could see temperatures rising in to the low teens in just over a weeks time.

This images shows the Jet stream moving across the Atlantic and over the UK. Notice the big dip over North America and the path the Jet stream takes across the Atlantic.