For the last few weeks I have been talking about the Polar Vortex warming and the possibility of sending us into a winter.
Over the last 3 days the temperature has increased by 30 degrees. This is a very quick rise in temperature so a Sudden Stratospheric Warming SSW is now taking place.
The image at the bottom of this blog shows the rise in temperature of the Vortex over the North pole at 10hpa.
The models believe another wave of warming will take place during next weekend. If this happens we could see a total on 50-60 degrees rise in temperature.
Now if this happens we could see a spell of winter possibly lasting into March. All this is still only a possibility. For the effects of this warming taking place in the Stratosphere ( 10hpa) and to move down to the Troposphere where our weather is made, it takes approximately 3 weeks.
The next 7 days weather is locked in and South Westerly’s bringing wet and sometimes windy weather is on its way, this wont change.
So I am looking for changes to take place as an indication that something is happening because of a warming of the Vortex.
I will be looking for high pressure to build over Greenland, the Pole and towards Scandinavia. This would could bring us a blocking.
I will also be watching for a shift in the Jet-stream moving South towards Spain and the Bay Of Biscay. The effect of this would be from around next weekend onwards we would start to see our low pressure storms deepening and wind speeds growing in strength.
So there is no guarantee that the Vortex warming will take us into winter, but I must say change is on its way.