I am watching to see if the risk of thunderstorms during the weekend will happen. At this time it looks like there is a risk of thunderstorms during Saturday and a greater risk during Sunday.
I have pasted the sounding graph for Nottingham on Sunday next to a photo of a thunderstorm cloud to try and explain what I mean and looking at.
It you look at the graph and you can see the Red line and the Dotted line join at number 4 that’s 4,000 feet. Now follow the dotted line you can see the dotted line re joins the Red line at 32,000 feet. That is a very large cloud that’s towering up to 32,000 feet. If you look at the photo it gives you an idea what I mean. That is a large cloud with a lot of instability taking place and this could set of some big thunderstorms the cap value at 803 is a good indication of a risk of thunderstorms.
I will update this a little closer when I have more confidence to place it in a forecast.