This bank holiday weekend looks like a right mixed bag. My weather station is now showing falling air pressure and the automated software side is indicating heavy rain is on its way.
The GFS model is bringing in rain around 8am, the ARPEGE is showing the rain will be entering the area around 10am. And the HIRLAM model is showing rain entering around 11. Looking at the radar of live rainfall at this moment all models have the position correct.
So we can expect heavy rain arriving into the Cannock Chase area between 8 and 10am Saturday.
The Thermal Updraft Velocity charts is indication a lot of instability and we could see cloud top heights rising to 23,000 feet. This gives a cap value of 1,300. This gives an indication of a risk of some big thunderstorms developing. If you look at the graph where the 3 lines joins that’s the base of the cloud, 2,000 feet. The pink dotted line them moves out and rejoins the redline at 32,000 feet.
So summary of this weekends bank holiday weather.
Heavy thunder rain during the morning. The main rain band clears early afternoon leaving a risk of a shower with some brighter spells, 21 c.
A dry day with bright and sunny spells, 20 c.
A wet day with heavy rain and showers, 16 c.