Followers will know that I have been talking about this up and coming cold spell of weather for sometime now. It was back on the 2nd February when I said there was a chance of a wintry return to the end of the month and early March if the SSW on the Vortex took place. We know that it did happen and the effects will soon be felt on the UK. The name The Beast From The East is well known and used and we will soon find out why.
Very cold air from Siberia is moving West Ward across central Europe driven with high pressure over Scandinavia towards the UK.
Very cold air looks like arriving Monday 26th if not a little sooner. During the week it looks like upper air temperatures at 850hpa that’s 1500m will be around -11 c possibly even dropping to -16 around the middle of the week, these would be quite exceptional temperatures, if we reach them. So what does this mean at ground level, we would see temperatures dropping to around -8 overnight and daytimes struggling to get above freezing.
Now the difficult part you all want to know is will it snow. Forecasting snow beyond 3 days is difficult and cannot be said with any certainty so I think it will be Saturday if not Sunday before I am happy to say with any certainty if or when it will snow.
This bitterly cold air from the East is very dry, so snow forecasts becomes even more difficult to predict. Remember any snow that does fall will be falling on frozen ground and so it will stick and there will be no thawing. The snow will also be very dry and powdery, this can easily blow around and drift, (it’s not good for building snowmen).
Looking at the latest model runs I think we could see some snow showers blowing inland from the East coast during Monday. At the moment the models are showing some real disturbances during Tuesday and Wednesday. This could bring some significant snowfall, but saying that it could be localised and not widespread.
So at the moment be prepared for bitterly cold temperatures and risk of possible disruptions from the snow Tuesday, Wednesday.
This very cold air looks like remaining through the working week and maybe come the weekend some slightly milder, moister air may move up from the South bringing a risk of snow, but that’s really too far away to say at this time.
Please remember this is what I am watching and this is not meant to be a forecast just yet, it’s only Thursday not Sunday, so please read what I have written and take it for what it is at this time.