This is the update for the start of December colder weather. A few days ago I indicated there was a chance of some wintry weather for the start of December. The moment I published that outlook the models flipped to a westerly air flow forecasting to bring a lot warmer temperatures, but I said it could all change again.
I continue to watch the models for the period the end of November and start of December and it looks like there is still a chance of a brief colder spell of weather from the last day of November and the first few days of December.
Looking at the ECMWF and the GFS models both indicate a northerly airflow over the UK. So it looks like we could see temperatures around -1 by night and around 3 to 4 centigrade by day. I would think it is unlikely for our area to see any wintry precipitation at this time.
This brief period of colder weather could be an indication that we could start to see our weather switching between mild westerlies then colder northerly airflow. This is due to high pressure ridge building and blocking westerlies so we get colder northerly airflow to take place. Then we could see the ridge collapsing allowing milder westerlies through.