This is an update on the Polar Vortex.
At the end of January early February there was a rapid rise in the temperature of the Polar Vortex. The vortex did not split or we did not see a wind reversal.
The temperature did not stay warm for long and soon fell quickly and now the temperature is below average for this time of year.
So will there be any changes taking place down in the troposphere to bring a wintery spell. If it does we have to look towards the end of February, early March. Since there was no split in the Vortex it’s looking unlikely at this time.
The GFS model is showing there could be another warming taking place from around the 21st February onwards. We will have to wait see if this happens, but I must say the Vortex is once again very cold.
The image is from the JMA and it’s showing the temperature at 10 hpa in the stratosphere. You can see the rapid rise in temperature and then the fall in temperature.
The average temperature line naturally rises as we move towards spring and summer.
So if we do get any sudden rise towards the end of February we are very late into Winter and the effect would be early Spring, but I must say I don’t hold up much hope for a late winter now.