Way back on the 2nd of February I wrote about the possibility of the Polar Vortex being affected by a SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming. If you check back I said if this happens we could see the return of winter the end of February early March. Well we know that the SSW did happen and we have also seen a Polar wind reversal.
The models show bitterly cold air moving westwards over mainland Europe during the coming days (The beast from East). By the start of next week the UK could be well be in the grip of this very cold air.
Come Monday 26th the GFS model is showing temperatures at 1500 metres will be -14 c. This is exceptionally cold for temperatures to be that cold above the UK. I would normally say to see temperatures at -10 c at 1,500 metres would put us in the freezer.
So what sort of weather can we expect.
I have stated the winter clock is ticking and next week we enter Spring and daylight hours lengthen and we have a little more warmth from the sun. But that said, from Monday we probably won’t see daytime temperatures rising above freezing point with night time temperatures falling to around -7 c.
Will it snow.
It is a boring answer but it’s still too early to say. You would expect this pattern of very cold air mass to bring snow. I would think from Monday, Tuesday onwards we could see a chance of some snow showers pushing in from the East. The models are showing significant snowfall early March but it’s far too early to say if this will happen.
So we have not seen this type of weather pattern with Siberian cold air mass and with high pressure over Scandinavia for a longtime. There is the possibility of lowest recorded temperature in mainland Europe next week. For the UK we could have the coldest winter period since 2010. Time will tell if this all comes true. There is still a chance that the warmer air around Iceland could move southwards and spoil this severe winter period. Accuracy of the models falls away after 5 days, so there is still time for things to change.
I will be continuing to watch the different model runs to see what they think will be happening and hopefully come the weekend I may be in a position to publish a forecast for the first half of next week.