Todays look at the Polar Vortex shows it’s continuing to warm very quickly. At the 10 hpa height the temperature today is around -20, yesterday it was around -40 c.
I am looking at another indication today that shows a change could be on it’s way. The Arctic oscillation AO. The model is showing that we could be going into negative oscillation. This would mean we could see cold air draining off the Pole moving Southwards. The model believes this could happen around the middle of February.
Yesterday I said I would be looking for high pressure building over Greenland and Scandinavia. The models also believe this could happen around the middle of February. I must stress this is what the GFS model is forecasting at this point. But this could be a signal that real change could be on its way.
I have added 2 images together, the GFS model for the 15th February and the AO model.
There is still no certainty winter will come to the UK because of the warming of the Vortex. But change looks like is on it’s way. If it does happen we will be looking at winter starting around the 3rd week of February.