I am getting a lot of messages asking about heavy snowfall at the end of the month.
There are a lot of alarming reports and images of heavy snowfall for next weekend. I know some sources do write this stuff and also i am seeing some people writing this stuff too who should know better.
I have been watching this period for several day’s now and the models are showing a cold spell of weather with some snow for parts of the UK.
What do I make of it all.
For snow the first thing I look for is temperature around -5c at 850hpa that’s 1,500 metres I also like to see us pass the 528 line and dew point close to 0 c
I see the criteria’s being met for the -5 c and the 528 line but the dew point I am not so sure. Maybe it will during darkness hours.
If we look at this image you can see -7c at 850 hpa, so that is cold especially for the end of October.
But we are in October not December, January or February. So I see the temperature in the day being around 5 to 7 c. Yes this is cold for the end of October, but if it was the winter we would see daytime temperatures struggling to get above freezing.
So I see snow for Scotland the mountains of Wales, Bodmin moor and maybe some of the peaks on the Pennines.
I dont see any for our area but I would not rule out any precipitation during the night being a little sleety at times.
The reason I say this is because where the snow starts out it will be around -5 to -7 c but on it’s journey to ground level it will meet warmer air and it will turn to rain. My observation readings from my weather station will become more importent later in the week and next weekend
I will be watching this carefully and will keep you updated.