The latest model run is still showing a stormy day for Sunday with a slight reduction in the forecasted wind speed for the midlands now to 50-60 mph. This is because they have moved the low pressure system further South towards Scotland this moves the main high wind area onto the South Coast area.
You can see by the image the low pressure system is still on the East coast of North America. I have marked it with a red line. When that moves into the Jet stream it will quickly move towards the UK and develop into our storm.
Until it gets closer later on Saturday I can only look at 3 or 4 different models and forecast what they are saying. Later on Saturday I will be able to track its path and I will start to look at Bouys out in the Atlantic reading their air pressure and wind speed to see how close it really is to the models. Then when it starts to reach land over Iceland, Ireland and mainland UK I be able to look at other Davis weather stations and read their data for the air pressure drop and wind speed and rainfall rate.
When I can start to look at all this data I will have a better understanding what the storm is and what path it is taking. Then I will be able to give a more realistic weather forecast.
At this time I would say at least 50 mph gusts that’s force 9 severe gale with very heavy persistent rain.