Tuesday, October 17, 2017

What I'm Watching

What I'm Watching

Possibility for our own storm on Saturday 21st October.

I am watching Saturday 21st October very carefully. At the moment it looks like there is a possibility Saturday will be a stormy day for us. A deep low pressure system looks like it will bring strong winds and rain into the midlands. At the moment it looks like the wind speed for our area will be greater than our wind speed...

Sundays update on ex Ophelia

This is my latest update on Ophelia. It is now starting to reach cooler waters and it will start to lose its hurricane status becoming a ex Tropical cyclone. It will still be a powerful storm, when it reaches the UK Monday morning onwards. The highest winds will be around Ireland, Cornish Coast and the Welsh coasts. The wind speeds will be reaching 60-65...

Update on ex Ophelia

I continue to monitor ex Ophelia. It is now a cat 3 hurricane. On this latest satellite image you can see Ophelia is now mixed up with the jet-steam You can still see the eye of the hurricane. The final image from NOAA National Hurricane Center it's still showing the path is moving towards Ireland and then weakens on its route towards Scotland North-west...

Update on Ophelia

Todays update on Ophelia . At the moment the winds are still reaching a sustained hurricane wind speed. I still see Ophelia arriving during Monday afternoon. The track shifted slightly eastwards too since yesterday prediction The main area for highest winds will be Ireland then later Western Scotland. I must stress this is not a hurricane that will arrive around Ireland and the UK. It will have...

Ophelia Ex Tropical storm or Hurricane.

Ophelia is a tropical storm what is now South West of the Azores. It's a low pressure system developing and moving North Westwards. Over the last few days I have been watching it projected path just to the west of Ireland. I have read that Ophelia is predicted to reach a cat 1 Hurricane on this approach to the UK and Ireland. I have also...

Could be going into an unsettled period from Sunday into the new working week.

Last Friday I published the outlook from the GEFS and I said I could see a change taking place around the 15th of the month. It looks like on Sunday 15th we could start to see the jet-stream moving from the South-west over the UK, it then looks like a trough develops leaving us on the cold side of the jet stream. I...

GEFS is going for a fairly settled period of weather.

Looking at this GEFS graph its showing we will be going into a fairly settled spell of weather. The GEFS is made up of many different members, if you look at the graph on the top line you can see that the lines are close together to start off with. Then they start to spread apart this shows there is...

Developing low Wednesday evening and night brings a wet and windy spell of weather.

A developing low pressure during Wednesday evening will bring a brief wet and windy spell of weather. We could see gusts up to 30 mph that's force 6 or even force 7 in exposed places. There is still some uncertainty on its development and track and I will update you tomorrow.  

Outlook for the end of the month into early October.

Last Friday I published the outlook for the next four weeks from the JMA. If you read this there was a suggestion our weather would become unsettled at the end of the month lasting into early October. Well I am watching this period carefully and this does seem to be the case. It looks like another big trough will develop bringing a ...

Unsettled weather for the first half of September.

Over the last few years September has turned out to be a fine settled month. September 2017 looks like the first half of the month will be unsettled with rain and winds. This can be partly explained to be down to a strong jet stream across the UK allowing a deep trough to develop. This will allow some low pressure...