I have put three images together from 3 different models the GFS, GEM and ARPEGE and all three are showing snow for our area Thursday morning. I have looked at the temperature during the morning and they are showing temperatures between 0 and 1 degree rising to 2 degrees during the afternoon.
Now temperatures of 0 to 1 centigrade would bring snow, but I always believe for snow temperatures at 1,500m needs to be -5 centigrade, anything less could fall as wet snow, sleet or just rain. Looking at the models the temperature is forecasted to be -1 to -3 centigrade at 1,500 metres.
I think there is a chance that the wind chill could come into play. Thursday morning we will see our winds coming from an easterly direction. This could mean the easterly wind chill could lower the air temperature by 1 degree meaning snow could continue falling from the clouds to the ground during the morning.
This is going to be real borderline conditions, but when the temperature is 1 centigrade this brings the biggest flakes.
I will write another update tomorrow. But like I say, to forecast snow beyond 24-48 hours for the UK is foolish.
