Back on the 21st December I indicated we could have two bites of the cherry with normal wintry conditions, and possibly Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) on the Polar Vortex bringing some real harsh wintry weather like 2013 and briefly 2018. I then wrote an update on the 27th December giving a date when I thought the SSW could happen, around the 4th January.
The media are at it again with the block buster movie weather conditions. We have to be very careful about scaremongering, yes it can happen, but at the same time it may not.
The SSW on the Polar Vortex can bring a harsh winter like 2013 which extended it to the end of March. The trouble with SSW on the Polar Vortex there are so many variables that can happen, will the wind reversal happen?, will it continue for a longer period of time? or will it just last a few days then revert back to its normal westerly flow. Then will the Polar vortex split or displace and if it does split where does it split, this is most important for the UK. A SSW greatly increases the risk for the UK, history tells us 30% SSW will bring harsh winter where 70% don’t.
I believe the SSW and wind reversal will take place on the 6th of January. So it’s a waiting game to see if that cold air moves down through the layers of the polar vortex towards the earth. This can take between 10-21 days. Over the coming days the models will really struggle with the wind reversal, so uncertainty prevails at this time.
I will update you when I know more.
