Here is the outlook for the run up towards Christmas from the GEFS.
To remind you about the GEFS the top part of the graph is the temperature at 850 hpa 1,500 metres. The thick black line is the 30 year temperature. Each thin line is a member that makes up the GEFS, the closer the lines are the greater the agreement. The bottom of the graph is precipitation. If the temperature gets below -5 c this indicates the precipitation could be wintry.
So this graph shows the temperatures looks like it could fall below the 30 year average again, but some members don’t agree so confidence is not that high. What is in agreement is, it’s looking very wet with rain every day at some point.
If it rains hard on a colder day forcing the temperature to briefly drop could the rain possibly turn wintry ?, I would not rule it out.
So a roller coaster ride in temperatures with rain at some point each day from now on the run up to Christmas.
