I am receiving a lot of questions about the coming snow and my take on this.
Going back around 10 days ago the models during one day were showing snow around the middle of this week. Some forecasters who should have known better got excited and said we would have snow.
Now snow for the UK is difficult to forecast beyond 3-4 days and even then border line conditions can leave you wishing you did not say anything. I have been there before and I am very careful.
If I am not saying anything, I am not on holiday or I have given up. I will be busy trying to see what I think will happen.
Now if I showed you some models from today’s runs from the GFS they would be saying snow was on its way for the end of the month, for Scotland, Wales and down the East coast and the Pennines.
So lets look at a couple of models the GFS first. The 30th November shows very cold air over the UK with the -5 c line at 1,500 metres over all the UK and even down to Southern France. So for now I would say its turning cold, but I would not put any details to this.
It would only take the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic to topple Eastwards over the UK and the cold weather will be gone. So I will continue to monitor 4 GFS model runs everyday to see what is happening.
At the moment the ECMWF 850 hpa model only runs to the 25th so I cannot do a comparison like for like.
I can look at their ENS meteograms and it shows a nice dip in the temperature at the end of the month.
The mild weather we have at the moment should be replaced by colder weather towards the end of the month. Not all cold weather will bring snow even if it drops below freezing. So lets give it another 5 to 7 days then I will update you.
If reported everything to you I was watching you would get fed up with the consent changes everyday.